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nato is a corpse

friday, april 18th, 2025

NATO is a corpse. All that remains is the grotesque performance art of a diplomatic zombie stumbling from summit to summit, mouthing tired clichés about “shared values” and “burden sharing,” even as its core strategic logic lies rotting beneath the surface. The Atlantic Alliance, once the steel scaffolding of Western security, has become a hollow ritual. Its military readiness is an illusion. Its political cohesion is fraying. Its future, if it has one, lies not in revival—but in reinvention or replacement.

And Trump Might Be Its Undertaker

This is not a triumphalist declaration from the Kremlin or Beijing. It is a sober diagnosis, grounded in realism and restraint. And it should be a wake-up call in Washington, Ottawa, Berlin, and beyond.

NATO’s death was not caused by Donald Trump, though he may soon become its undertaker. Nor was it caused by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, though that war has exposed the Alliance’s hollowness in ways no war game or communique ever could. The real cause lies in decades of European free-riding, American strategic drift, and a foundational lie at the heart of the Alliance: the idea that an empire can masquerade as a collective defense pact without consequences.

Every Great Cause begins as a movement, becomes a Business, and degenerates into a Racket.

Let’s start with the numbers. Most NATO members still do not meet the 2 percent of GDP defense spending benchmark, despite years of promises and performative panic. Canada, which has taken freeloading to an art form, has shown no serious intention of meeting its obligations. As I’ve written elsewhere, Trudeau’s empty pledges mask a decaying defense industrial base, a stagnant recruiting system, and an Arctic strategy made of snow and sentiment.

Germany—the economic motor of Europe—still can’t field a combat-ready army for more than a few weeks at a time. The Bundeswehr is a shell. Its special fund is already mostly spent, and its political class remains addicted to strategic ambiguity and military minimalism. France wants “strategic autonomy” but lacks the scale and will to lead Europe alone. Poland, despite its impressive rearmament, cannot carry the continent’s defense burden on its shoulders—certainly not while Berlin dithers and Washington increasingly looks west, not east.

Meanwhile, the United States—still NATO’s military backbone—faces a fiscal cliff, a recruitment crisis, and an overstretched force posture. The era of limitless resources is over. American global primacy has ended. Multipolarity has arrived. The U.S. must now prioritize. And that means making hard choices about where its forces are truly needed—and where others must finally step up or face the consequences.

The war in Ukraine has laid these contradictions bare. NATO as an institution is not fighting the war. The United States is. Some European countries are helping—but most are hedging. NATO has been bypassed in favor of bilateral and ad hoc coalitions. Article 5 hasn’t been tested, and it may never be. The idea that NATO is “more united than ever” is a comforting fiction, trotted out to conceal the fact that the Alliance can no longer mount a serious, conventional defense of Europe without massive and prolonged American escalation.

Even the so-called Nordic expansion—Sweden and Finland joining NATO—has not changed the equation. It’s a strategic sideshow. Unless Europe can build up a credible, conventional deterrent in the East, without expecting Washington to always bail it out, the Alliance will remain a Potemkin village: flags, acronyms, and summits without substance.

Trump’s likely return to the White House in 2025 should not be viewed as a cataclysm but as an overdue reckoning. He will not end NATO. He will force Europe to decide whether it is willing to pay for its own defense or not. He will not blow up the Alliance. He will make it answer for its contradictions. And that, frankly, is what a serious ally should do.

Some critics will scream that this is the death knell of the “rules-based international order.” But the order they mourn was already breaking down—long before Trump, long before Ukraine, long before Brexit or Crimea. What we are witnessing is not a collapse but a transition: from the illusion of Atlanticism to the reality of multipolarity. And NATO, if it is to matter at all in this new world, must either become a true European-led military alliance with American support—or fade into history like SEATO and CENTO before it.

This doesn’t mean abandoning Europe to Russian domination. It means telling uncomfortable truths. Europe is rich. Europe is populous. Europe is not helpless. The United States can and should support its European allies—but it should not subsidize their illusions indefinitely. A more self-reliant Europe is not a threat to American interests; it is a precondition for strategic focus on the North Pacific, the Arctic, and the Western Hemisphere—where the real contests of the 21st century will be decided.

In my writing here and elsewhere, I have repeatedly argued that Canada must stop pretending it is a global power and start acting like what it is: a North Pacific, Arctic, and North Atlantic state. That means prioritizing regional defense, rebuilding naval and aerospace capabilities, and getting serious about continental defense. NATO is not the vehicle for that anymore—if it ever was. For Canada, continuing to hide behind NATO rhetoric while failing to meet even the most basic obligations is not only cowardly—it is dangerous.

A dead NATO still carries risks. Strategic ambiguity, brittle expectations, and performative deterrence are a recipe for miscalculation. The Alliance’s political leadership must either acknowledge the need for transformation or risk a future crisis that reveals, in real time and in blood, what we already know: that the emperor has no tanks.

The solution is not sentimental nostalgia. It is clear-eyed realism. NATO in its current form is not worth saving. But its core idea—collective defense among likeminded powers—still has value. What’s needed is a reset: a reimagined Euro-Atlantic security framework led by capable European states, with American support but not American dominance. A NATO that deters by capability, not by assumption. A NATO that can say no as well as yes. A NATO, in short, that lives in the real world.

The alternative is strategic decay. A slow slide into irrelevance. More summits, more selfies, more hollow communiqués. Until, one day, NATO doesn’t die with a bang—but with a bureaucratic whimper.

That future is already here. NATO is dead. The only question now is what comes next—and whether we have the courage to build it.

© 4.10.2025 by Andrew Latham, "RealClear Wire".

A Day In The Life.

Up at 8:30a on Friday, I made coffee and breakfast, took a 250mg Bayer Aspirin for various hip/back pains, fired-up the Win-7 Pentium HP Desktop to let 32 million lines of code load, had a couple smokes in the garage, relaxed at my desk and enjoyed the new variety of "La Hale" Kona Coffee. I scanned the weather and news headlines. Heck, it WAS a nice morning, until I scanned all of the Fox News' site, with all the weird, exasperating and depressing articles.

It was a rainy, dreary, cold 40°F morning, with more rain on the way for the day. I got ready for the day, and worked on "The Document", moving paper folders in filing cabinets, thru the late afternoon. I need to inventory the Cannon T65 Dbl Door GunSafe, but until I can move the HEMI V8 Jeep outside, I can't get into the safe. Maybe tomorrow, after the rain abates. Well, it rained all afternoon, evening and thru the night. I kept the condo warm, and closed down just before the evening news at 6p. I watched History's "unXplained" and TWC's "Weather Gone Viral" until 1a, and unplugged.

Up at 9:30a on Saturday, an overcast, rainy, cold 38° morning, with a forecast high of only 49°. I upped the heat, made coffee, took half of a Bayer® Back and Body Aspirin for Sciatica pain, tuned into one of last week's "CP Show" that I'd missed. After 4 sunny-side-up eggs and has browns, I got ready for the day, and checked some areas/things that my cleaning lady would need to pay extra attention to, on Tuesday. The 2025 IMSA Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach PRE-RACE QUALIFYING was on at 3p, and the longer INDYCAR Grand Prix of Long Beach RACE, was on a 5p, and I planned to watch them both, after a short nap. Good events, both.

I had dinner, buttoned-up the condo as the sun set and temps fell, watched the news and switched to History's "Mysteries From Above" series, until 1:30a. Lights out.

Up at 9:15a on Sunday, a partly sunny, windy, warm 48° morning, upped the heat, made coffee, scanned the HP Desktop's Weather and news sites, and had some smokes in the garage. As I do every morning, I checked the old AT&T Flip Phone for voicemails, and I had one from Sis: our 85yr old cousin, from Wrightsville, was in York Hospital's ICU on a ventilator, with possibly life-ending Sepsis, and she wanted to know if I would go with her to visit him this afternoon, after she got back from a hair app't in nearby Lancaster. I got ready for the day, and started a load of laundry.

Sis and I left at 2p for the York Memorial Hospital, spent the next 4hrs with Buddy and Family, and finally got home around 6. I finished the laundry, called Sherry to get a day set aside for the coming week, and made some dinner. There's no news on FNC-TV on either Saturday or Sunday -- just some dumbassed POS with 4 babbling idiots -- so I have to find alternate news sources, such as NEWSMAX and FR.com to stay informed, besides my usual line-up of news-oriented websites. Pitiful, Fox.

I watched MT's "Fast & Loud" for an episode or two, and switched to Discovery's "Filthy Fortunes" until 1a, and unplugged.

Awake and up at 4:15a on Monday, at 0-DARK-THIRTY, I made coffee, briefly upped the heat since it was still 72° inside, The rain started around 6a, and I have zero complaints. WE NEED THE RAIN, after being down 4" since January. I couldn't get back to sleep, and I know I'll be taking a snooze this after the 4 errands are finished. I skipped breakfast and/or until I get back home, and left at 11a. Traffic was light, I did 4 stops and was back home by 12:45p. Nice.

After unloading the Jeep, I made lunch, had a couple smokes on the back patio, off my office-sunroom, dialed-in some relaxing music, and hit the LR couch for an hour's nap. I worked on "The Document" and did some relaxing on the patio, as the weather was beautiful, closing down at 7:30p, as dusk arrived. After dinner, I watched Fox News (FNC), then switched to MT's "Iron Resurrection" and TWC's "Hourly Local Reports". I was nodding-off by 12:30a, and unplugged for the night, My cleaning lady is in at 8:30a.

Up at 5:45a on Tuesday, I wasn't feeling very well at all,. got ready for the day, made coffee, left the heat at 70°, had a few smokes in the cool garage... and then threw-up, maybe from coughing so hard. "Dry heaves". Yuk. It was a partly sunny/mostly cloudy, 59°, windy morning, and forecast to get to 67° later. I checked-in on the news and weather, JoAnne arrived at 8:30, and I tuned into the "CP Show LIVE", from 9-12. While JoAnne worked, I grabbed a nap, hoping the nausea would pass and I wouldn't have to reschedule Sherry's ~1:00p visit, today.

After getting back up around 11:30, JoAnne was finished and gone, Sherry called and wasn't feeling good, so we rescheduled. I had lunch, did 2 errands and worked on "The Document" until almost dark. After dinner, I watched the FNC News, switched to History's "Curse of Oak Island" until 12:30a, and unplugged.

Up at 9a on Wednesday, I upped the heat, made coffee, tuned into the "CP Show LIVE", and scanned the news and weather headlines. Sis came by at 1p, and we visited Mt Rose Cemetery where Mom & Dad are interred, to do some weeding at the Chapel of Memories Mausoleum, and she left around 2. I spent a couple hours doing some minor condo chores, grabbed a 2hr nap, and had some dinner, before the evening news. History's "American Pickers" was on, so I watched it until 1a. Lights out.

Awake at 7a, I rolled over and went back to sleep until 9:15 on Thursday. A sunny, mild 47° morning, with all kinds of lawnmower/weed whacker/blower noise -- their usual day is Tuesday, but are rain-delayed earlier in the week -- on this complex' property, I upped the heat, made coffee, had a smoke in the garage and tuned into the "CP Show LIVE", until 12noon. Sherry arrived, after being caught in the infamous Rt 30's traffic, and we had a great time until 6p, when she had to leave for the day. She'll be back tomorrow, after working for Daughter Hollie's . I had some dinner, watched the news, and switched to Discovery's "Filthy Fortunes" until 12midnight. Lights out.

Tomorrow starts a new week, here in the "Journal", and once again, it's a clear one for me. Sherry and I'll plan out a day or two, next week, when I see her tomorrow.

The FBI Knew All Along.

You do not have to wade far into the recently declassified Crossfire Hurricane documents to be shocked.  I had only read three pages of the FBI’s December 19, 2016 interview with the DoJ’s Bruce Ohr before learning just how early in the game the FBI brass knew that the Steele dossier was worthless.

In the way of background, on July 31, 2016, the FBI launched its counterintelligence operation into the Trump campaign, codenamed “Crossfire Hurricane.”  FBI agent Peter Strzok was assigned to head it up.

If the goal was to cripple Trump regardless of the evidence, Strzok was the man for the job.  “Damn this feels momentous,” he texted his lover, FBI attorney Lisa Page, upon getting the assignment.  Two weeks later he explained to Page his motives.  “There’s no way [Trump] gets elected — but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk,” he texted her.  “It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40.”

Ohr played a curious role in the whole affair.  He served as unofficial DoJ contact with the notorious Christopher Steele, the author of the eponymous Steele dossier.  According to Ohr, the two met for breakfast on the same day the FBI launched Crossfire Hurricane.  Steele wanted to discuss some “serious stuff” involving low-level Trump adviser Carter Page.

More interesting than what Steele claimed to know about Page is what Ohr already knew about the funding of the Steele dossier.  As Ohr told his FBI interviewer, Joe Pientka, Glenn Simpson of Fusion GPS “hired Steele to dig up Trump’s connection to Russia.”  Complicating matters is that Ohr’s wife Nelli worked for Simpson.

Protecting Nellie, a Russian interpreter, Ohr claimed she was “hired to conduct open source research.”  He conceded, however, “Even though she did not know the goal of the project, she was able to surmise the purpose as the individuals were close to Trump.”

Ohr knew, too, that “Glenn Simpson was hired by a lawyer who does opposition research,” although he did not name the lawyer.

Steele, reported Ohr, “was desperate that Donald Trump not get elected and was passionate about him not being the U.S. President.”  Ohr did not believe that Steele was “making up information.”  That said, he had little confidence in Steele’s sources.  Steele may have reported what he heard, but, said Ohr, “that doesn’t make that story true.”  Explained Ohr, “There are  always Russian conspiracy theories that come from the Kremlin.”

Steele and Ohr met again that September, close to the time reporter Michael Isikoff first broke the story of the Steele dossier.  In this meeting, an increasingly worried Steele fed Ohr what would prove to be bogus information about Trump’s relationship to Alfa Bank.  On September 23, 2016, Isikoff wrote a lengthy breakout article for Yahoo News based on a briefing by “multiple sources.”  Ohr was unsure whether Isikoff had met with Simpson or Steele or both.

As Isikoff reported, intelligence officials were investigating Carter Page’s “private communications with senior Russian officials.”  He reported, too, that Senate majority leader Harry Reid had briefed the FBI director James Comey on the “significant and disturbing ties” between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin.  Reid likely got this information from the Clinton campaign, apparently unaware that Comey had access to the same spurious intel.

In October 2016, a few weeks after the article’s publication, the DOJ and the FBI packaged the Isikoff article and the dossier in their application to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC), specifically to monitor Carter Page.  As the 2019 inspector general report by Michael Horowitz made painfully clear, despite years of denial by various parties, the FBI relied heavily upon the Steele dossier to get FISA authorization on Page.  Serving on the FISC at the time was Judge James Boasberg.  Anti-Trump partisans tainted every step of the process.

At this time, if FBI director James Comey knew no more than Bruce Ohr did, he knew that the Hillary Clinton campaign, working through the Perkins Coie law firm, commissioned Fusion GPS to do opposition research on Trump.  In turn, Fusion, assisted by Ohr’s wife Nelli, “hired Steele to dig up Trump’s connection to Russia.”  This information was then fed back to Clinton.

Comey also knew that Steele was as desperate as his own Peter Strzok to keep Trump out of the White House.  He knew, too, that Steele’s information was no more reliable than the other “Russian conspiracy theories that come from the Kremlin.”  Even more appalling, Comey submitted the Isikoff article as independent evidence, full well knowing that it was simply reheated Steele material.

The Crossfire Hurricane documents also include a June 15, 2017 FBI interview with Adm. Mike Rogers, Obama’s director of the National Security Agency.  This interview illuminates the fate of the Steele dossier post-election.

As Rogers related, President Barack Obama requested from his national security team a “single intelligence product on the topic of Russian interference in the 2016 election.”  Obama’s inner circle — FBI director James Comey, CIA director John Brennan, and National Intelligence director James Clapper — never fully trusted Rogers and withheld information as needed.

In late December 2016, for instance, when Rogers reviewed the content of that intelligence product that would come to be known as the Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), he was unaware that the Obama intel team was tying Trump associate Carter Page into the alleged Russian interference.  He would not learn this news until March 2017.

Rogers was also surprised to see “the contents of the ‘Steele dossier’ in the body of the product.”  In an early January 2017 meeting, Rogers asked his three colleagues “why the ICA needed to focus on the dossier, as it was considered largely uncorroborated.”  Rogers succeeded over Comey’s objection in getting the dossier moved to the appendix.

On January 5, the four members of the National Security team met with Trump to share the details of the ICA.  As agreed among the four, Comey would stay behind to brief President-Elect Trump “about the contents of the Steele dossier.”  The Rogers interview adds no new information as to what happened following that meeting, but much is now known.

At the time of the January 5 meeting, as Comey knew, CNN had the story.  He also knew that by telling the president about the dossier, he would give CNN the necessary news hook to report the dossier’s allegations, at least the more plausible ones.

As planned, an account of Comey’s one-on-one with Trump was promptly leaked to CNN.  On January 8, deputy FBI director Andrew McCabe emailed his senior FBI colleagues, “CNN is close to going forward with the sensitive story.  The trigger for [CNN] is they know the material was discussed in the brief and presented in an attachment.”  McCabe sent this email under the heading, “The flood is coming.”

On January 10, 2017, a quartet of CNN reporters including Jake Tapper broke the story of the Steele dossier.  In the first paragraph, readers learned that “Russian operatives claim to have compromising personal and financial information about Mr. Trump.”  In the second, they learned that “the allegations came, in part, from memos compiled by a former British intelligence operative, whose past work US intelligence officials consider credible.”

Unfortunately for CNN, hours later on that same January day, BuzzFeed served up the ultimate buzzkill.  It went ahead and ran the complete dossier under the headline “These Reports Allege Trump Has Deep Ties To Russia.”  The CNN crew was outraged.  “Collegiality wise,” wrote Jake Tapper to BuzzFeed editor Ben Smith, “it was you stepping on my dick.”  CNN had an exclusive.  Steele himself had briefed its reporters.  They could have milked the story for weeks.  BuzzFeed blew their cover.

No one stepped on anyone’s dick to break the story of the dossier’s funding.  Incredibly, it was not until October 2017 that the story broke, and only then through the relentless probing of Rep. Devin Nunes, Kash Patel, and their team of investigators.

Knowing that Nunes had uncovered the Clinton funding source, Obama’s people fed the story to the Washington Post.  Too bad they did not share the truth a year earlier.  They could have spared the president and the nation a world of trouble.

© 4.14.2025 by Jack Cashill, "American Thinker".