$20 trillion is a joke, ha! better figure 10x that number to be accurate...

more broke than we realize

friday, july 20th, 2018

the 2018 "official" U.S. debt figure of $34 trillion is 120% of GDP and projected to double as a percent of GDP within the next 20 years. It's big.

If we add "off-the-books" net obligations like Social Security and Medicare, our all-in debt, or so-called "fiscal gap", rises to $110 trillion, or 390% of GDP. It's scary.

Raising taxes and reducing benefits won't restore solvency. Something is going to break, and it won't be pretty.

As shown in the following graph, the reported national debt of $34 trillion is currently 120% of GDP, a level only seen before in the wake of World War II. But unlike the last time, there are no signs that debt has peaked. We use a percentage of GDP to convey our ability to pay. If every dollar of output our country generates this year were used to pay our debt, it would not be enough. Of course we're not obligated to pay right away and therein lies our ho-hum attitude; we trust some miracle will solve the problem someday.

We're broke and no one seems to care. We're all aware that this country owes a lot of money, but no one cares because we're leading pretty good lives here. We have yet to feel the consequences of being broke, but that won't last long. Some things are already breaking, and an ultimate breakdown is on the way. 2018 is the first year when tax receipts won't pay for Social Security and Medicare benefits. We are spending down the corpus, and will have spent all of the Social Security Trust by 2034, while Medicare monies will only last until 2026. This might sound like we have time, but we don't, especially since nothing is being done to head off these catastrophes. It's full speed ahead into the reckoning. Furthermore, some large pension funds are broke, and are likely to renege on their promised benefits. In the following, we share some details on this bankruptcy, and offer some actions that might help, although they are unlikely.

Interesting graphic, showing Right vs Left.

But that's not the whole story. We've made promises to older people that simply can't be kept unless the promises are changed (broken) and we burden today's young people with much higher taxes; the fixes are not pretty. As shown in the last row of the following table, the present value of the promise to pay Social Security benefits is $29 trillion more than projected receipts, and adding Medicare's $47 trillion promise brings our off-the-books liability to $76 trillion, more than twice the published liability. Our all-in national debt is an astronomical 390% of GDP.

Congress can address these problems by reducing spending or increasing taxes, or a combination of both, but the required magnitude is out of the question according to Professor Laurence Kotlikoff in his The US is dead broke and the tax bill does nothing to help matters, where he states:

"Yes, Uncle Sam can avoid permanently raising all federal taxes by almost 60 percent. But this means reneging on his spending promises. But even if he cuts all forms of spending (defense spending, entitlement spending, infrastructure spending, gassing up Air Force One, you name it), the needed permanent percentage cut is 47 percent!"

A 60-percent permanent tax hike or a 47-percent permanent spending cut? These are our options the day after the ("magnificent" to some) tax bill was passed? How can things possibly be this bad?

Here's how: Successive Congresses and administrations have been systematically lying about our fiscal condition. They spent the past six decades accumulating massive liabilities that they kept off the books via clever use of language.

Congress has another choice that is equally ugly. It can print money, i.e. debase the currency. This possibility has been the driving force behind the evolution of cryptocurrencies and other ways to replace the U.S. dollar standard. In other words, this country can renege on its promises at the expense of all savers holding dollars and dollar promises.

Time will tell what Congress decides, but in the meantime, we can prepare for what is likely to be very tough times.

What Can We Do? Our best response is to not rely on Social Security and Medicare, and if we think debasing is a possibility, we should save in a "currency" other than the U.S. dollar. Saving more is part of the answer, and holding those savings in other forms of "money" is the rest. Those other forms include precious metals, real assets like real estate, and perhaps foreign and cryptocurrencies. I say "perhaps" because foreign and cryptos can be volatile, and might not hold up in a U.S. hyperinflation.

Those with defined benefit pension plans are more fortunate than those without because they have a presumed annual benefit from a viable company or union rather than the government. But they too would suffer from debasing, plus some pension plans are broke, and the insurance behind them from the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) is on the brink of bankruptcy. When the PBGC was created in 1974, Jack Treynor, Pat Regan & Bill Priest wrote The Financial Reality of Pension Funding under ERISA, where they predicted the ultimate collapse of the PBGC because it was created to insure an uninsurable risk. It would appear that the day of collapse is at hand. As it stands now, healthy plans are paying most of the premiums and have to be thinking about terminating their plans because the premiums are not fair. The PBGC is going to break unless taxpayers pick up the slack, which is totally unfair.

Conclusion: We are broke and have decided to ignore it. The implied hope is that the repercussions will be in someone else's lifetime and that they won't be too painful. This is simply wishful thinking.

© June 24th By Ronald Surz, "The United States Is Even More Broke Than We Think".

A Day In The Life.

I was up at 8a on Friday, made coffee, threw out a new box of Kellogg's Honey Smacks and left to look for a table/desk for my soon-to-be-rehabbed sunroom. Tim finished the wood refinishing around 1p, and now painters, door and floor installers are calling to get their parts done, so I can move my computers etc to the sunroom. Trying to coordinate a few guys for one room has been a pain-in-the-ass; next, the entire condo gets painted, recarpeted, re-floored, new blinds etc. I wanted to stop at Mickey D's for a burger, but their lettuce is contaminated and I went to Sam's Club, instead, with Becky. I also threw out a bottle of water in my Jeep, which can catch fire. It was Friday The 13th, after all.

I stopped at Staples, Office Depot/Office Max and Wolff's Furniture to look for a table/desk for the sunroom, to move all my computer equipment on to, and a small filing cabinet to go with it. I found several at Office Max and Wolff's, and will go back with my camera and tape measure, to get some pics and measurements, and figure out how the new furniture is going to work. I also have CommieCast coming out Saturday 28th to check to CATV/InterNet connection plug, to make sure it works. I was very tired from all that walking in those 1-3 acre stores.

Sometimes, the best way to connect, is to disconnect.

More than tired from a busy day, I watched Speed Is The New Black, until I nodded-off at 9:30p, shut things down and went upstairs to grab some sleep.

I slept-in until 10am; probably the latest I've slept in many a moon, it felt damned good, and I truly deserved it, dammit. After I did the "missionary work", Becky and I spent the afternoon picking out the New Vinyl Plank Flooring (Essis) and some new computer furniture (Office Max) for me, in the sunroom. We quit at 6p, and Becky went home, dead tired from being out all day running errands and taking care of Dad. I watched a NASCAR race from Kentucky until 10p, and then shut it down for the night. There's an IndyCar Grand Prix at Toronto, tomorrow at 2p.

Worst night I can remember: no sleep. I started out in my bed, came downstairs to the couch, tried the comfy recliner, but could catch no more than 5-10 mins of sleep. In effect, I was up all night, millions of "things" running thru my head, not releasing my brain to be free to sleep. By 4:20a, I was back on the computer and having some breakfast. The drought continues, yet the Accu-Weather forecast calls for heavy t-storms, which are now 50-60 miles northeast of the York area, moving fast and will miss us, once again. Temps hit a humid 85°F for the day, and no rain. The IndyCar Toronto Grand Prix race was a carnage event, and with Dad & Becky stopping by, I missed the last half of it. After some of Becky's delicious lasagne for dinner, I watched "American Pickers" until 11p, and quit for the night. Lordy, I needed sleep.

I got a decent night's sleep, but because Dan from Brown's Glass Co was coming by at 7:30a, I had to get moving. I made coffee and the workman took care of recaulking my 3 4ftx7ft sunroom's curved windows, and cleaning them inside and out, for which I slipped him some extra cash. I took the wood floor samples back to Essis Co – here's my new sunroom flooring sample – and came in for the afternoon. Believe or don't, that "wood" sample is actually Luxury Vinyl Planking, a relatively new product, indestructible and a tiny fraction of what wood costs. By 2:15p, it was already 96°F and forecast to reach near 100°F.

I had a 3:45p foot dr's app't, and left at 3p. I was done and back by 5p, with temps still at 96°F. With Wednesday's "Endoscopy procedure" on my stomach, pancreas, and pseudo-cyst, I've stopped eating solid foods, and am just drinking clear liquids (Jell-O is considered a clear liquid), and have cut out many of my daily Rx pills. On PSU-Hershey's orders. I listened to the Mark Levin Show, until 9p, watched "Graveyard Carz" until 10, and closed down to get some sleep. After 2hrs of tossing and turning, my mind was going a mile-a-minute, and I got back up, went downstairs and did some computer work until 3:15a.

Another bad night w/ no sleep. I tried until 5a, but couldn't get to sleep, so I was up for the day. We're leaving for Penn State-Hershey Medical Center at 6a Wednesday, so I can get the surgery done beginning at 8:30-8:45a. And hopefully come back home later that same afternoon, if there's no bleeding.

I stayed in most of Tuesday, as multiple t-storms rolled thru the area, trying to get some sleep and make-up for the past few nights. Once this surgery is over successfully, I'll be able to sleep again. Right now, I'm very, very apprehensive about another endoscopic procedure and the risk of internal bleeding from a nick of the surgeon's instruments. I went to sleep around 10p, since I'm getting up at 4:30-5a.

Wednesday 5a, came early, and Becky and I left for PSU-Hershey Medical Center for my 8:30 operation. I woke-up in the recovery room at 10:45, got dressed, met with my Dr at 11:15a, and was back home by 1:30p. I was pretty groggy the rest of the day, catching several 1-2hr naps on the LR couch, eating Jell-O, drinking clear liquids and finally going to bed at 8:30p. No coughing-up blood this time, and rides to York and PSU-Hershey Hospitals' ERs. I slept well.

I slept-in until 8:15a on Thursday, made coffee, and went to Weis Market, to do some food shopping, and to my PNC Bank to get $5k in cash for the safe. Dad and Becky stopped by to drop-off some fresh fruit and fresh-made Handel's blueberry-cheesecake ice cream. Temps were in the mid-80s with very low humidity, and it was truly a beautiful day. I got my mail from the past 3-4 days, and my 2019 tax bill and multiple medical bills were coming due. If I pay my property-school tax bill in toto at first "face date" on bill, I get an automatic $500 homestead tax deduction on 2018 taxes, next year. Nice. But it's imperative to have that PAID-stamped receipt from the tax collector's office.

I dropped-off the tax collector's payment envelope at the nearby massive USPS (US Postal Service) complex, and drove around for a short while, stopping at a convenience store to get some milk, which I missed at Weis Market, earlier in the morning. Traffic was very heavy even at 1:30p, mainly due to all the PENNDot road work and blockades, so I came home, parked the Jeep and listened to Rush, and then Savage, for a few hours. Rite Aid called with some Rxs that were ready to pick-up, and I'll do that tomorrow morning. The Mark Levin Show came on while I was calling hardwood floor refinishers on my subcontractors' hardwood flooring list.

By 10p, I'd had enough radio and TV, closed down and went to bed. No app'ts until next week one meeting with a flooring refinisher, and the next few weeks are clear too, so I can sleep-in and rest-up until mid-August, when I go back to

PSU-Hershey for a CT Scan, and meeting w/ surgeon about pseudo-cyst drainage progress. If progress is good, I might not have to have the gall bladder out. Sept-Oct are going to be very hectic and busy here, as that's when the rehabbing starts in earnest as dozens of subcontractors will be coming and going, and my GC (gewneral contrfactor) directs the action. I'll be moving out and staying w/ Dad for those weeks, or until the 2nd floor is done and I can have my bedroom-bathroom rooms back.

HOLY SHIT! I AM GOBSMACKED! 3 OF 4 NOVEMBER AND ALL 4 DECEMBER 2017 ENTRIES ARE GONE AND MISSING FROM MY COMPUTER AND FROM THE WEB LIST OF 2017 ENTRIES! I CAN'T FIND THEM ANYWHERE, AND I'LL NEVER BE ABLE TO RE-CREATE THEM. 7 OF 8 ENTRIES ARE MISSING. DAMMIT!!! WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?

After 3hrs of searching and renaming files and the 2017 master list of entries, I got everything back to "normal", more or less. Damn.

Conundrum.

The very definition of the word conundrum is "something that is puzzling or confusing". Here are six conundrums today, in the US:

1. America is capitalist and greedy - yet half of the population is subsidized.

2. Half of the population is subsidized - yet they think they are victims.

3. They think they are victims - yet their representatives run the government.

4. Their representatives run the government - yet the poor keep getting poorer.

5. The poor keep getting poorer - yet they have things that people in other countries only dream about.

6. They have things that people in other countries only dream about - yet they want America to be more like those other countries.

Think about it. That pretty much sums up the USA in the 21st century. Kind of makes you wonder who is doing the math.

These three, short sentences tell you a lot about the direction of our current government and cultural environment:

1. We are advised to NOT judge ALL muslims by the actions of a few lunatics, but we are encouraged to judge ALL gun owners by the actions of a few lunatics. Funny how that works. And here's another one worth considering...

2. Seems we constantly hear about how Social Security is going to run out of money. How come we never hear about welfare or food stamps running out of money? What's interesting is the first group "worked for" their money, but the second didn't. Think about it. And last but not least...

3. Why are we cutting benefits for our veterans, no pay raises for our military and cutting our army to a level lower than before WWII, but we are not stopping the payments or benefits to all illegal aliens?

Am I the only one missing something?

Enemies Of The State: YOU & ME!

If you don't think that the US Government is intentionally targeting, investigating and prosecuting-persecuting Conservative Americans, you're living in a dream world of warm sponge baths and fresh diapers. America is under attack from The Enemy Within©.

This intentional use of Federal Agencies – IRS, DoINJ, EPA, BLM, Dept Ag, Dept Int, OSHA etc – by The White House, demokkkRAT-nazi party, criminal unions and other corrupt, criminal, corrupt NGO entities, should make the hair on your neck stand-up.

Liberals have been filling government agencies, at all levels, with self-interested, job perpetuation, Marxist-socialist-leftist experts for many decades. Conservatives are a threat to them, their progressive commie agenda and way of life. If we truly had a government based on a Constitution and implemented by elected representatives, this kind of stuff wouldn't happen. But we don't, and it does.

Stupid, ignorant, racist, ghetto-rat, thug filth/trash, like US Rep Elijah Cummings (SCUM-MD) who is so corrupt, criminal and hate-filled toward America, Conservative Americans of all stripes, and the Tea Party, that he should be imprisoned for the rest of his lying, pathetic, miserable life, for treason. And US Sen Joe McCarthy, was more of an American than you'll ever be, racist asshole!

One of the Articles of Impeachment drawn up against Richard Nixon in July of 1974, was merely "threatening" to use the Internal Revenue Service to selectively audit political opponents. 0bummer-boy has now fully-weaponized the IRS against all of his political opponents, ordering multiple covert campaigns of intimidation, threats, and persecution of Tea Party and Conservative organizations, and those daring to criticize 0bummer-boy's Marxist, racist, socialist agenda.

Amazingly, Fox News did a series of special reports on the corrupt, criminal US Govt's use of agencies to harass, threaten, confiscate property without cause, audit, shut-down without cause, fine and threaten with prison and to harm and/or kill American businesses and citizens. Get some popcorn and watch these six YT videos of Fox News' Reports:

      • Fox News Reporting Enemies Of The State: The Sagebrush Rebellion, Part 1 (10:44),

      • Fox News Reporting Enemies Of The State: The Sagebrush Rebellion, Part 2 (6:47),

      • Fox News Reporting Enemies Of The State: Gibson Guitar (5:43),

      • Fox News Reporting Enemies Of The State: IRS Targeting, Part 1 (5:56),

      • Fox News Reporting Enemies Of The State: IRS Targeting, Part 2 (5:34),

      • Fox News Reporting Enemies Of The State: Energy Independent (6:12).

Make no mistake about it: The IRS Is A Criminal Organization. Here's the full movie, "CROSSHAIRS: The Internal Revenue Scandal" (54:59).

The corrupt, criminal FedGov is continuing to seize our rightfully-owned lands.

And, a two-decades-old battle between a Nevada rancher and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has resulted in officials armed with machine guns surrounding the ranch and forcibly removing the owner's cattle. This is NOT going to end well, as the Waco slaughter and Ruby Ridge murders didn't.