"Nights In White Satin" (opens in separate window)

why the left would win the next civil war

friday, november 16th, 2018

it’s a slow Saturday, so I figured I’d share some “shower thoughts” with you on a topic I’ve been pondering lately. The topic is pretty controversial and highly unpleasant, and this is mainly just me thinking out loud. But if it gets you thinking as well, then it was worth sharing.

I’ve been around pro-2A circles all my life, and whenever men meet and talk guns, there’s always a really large thing hanging in the air between them, and 99% of the time that thing goes unstated. But if it were to be stated, it might go something like this: “We may be talking ‘self defense’ or ‘home defense,‘ but we all know the real reason we have these is ‘just in case.'”

And by “just in case,” I’m talking a Paul Revere, Minutemen-type situation. We take it as a given that we — our tribe, the people who are pro-gun and pro-liberty — will prevail in any armed confrontation, because after all, we’re the ones with the guns.

But what if we’re wrong? What if guns aren’t even close to being enough? What if the right tries to rise up for free speech and liberty, guns blazin’, and gets smacked right back down?

demonkkkRATs always see a silver lining with a dark cloud. Me? I always see a full glass of death gel – JS.

Yeah, I know–but don’t close this browser tab just yet!

Before you dismiss me and my musings, consider this question that’ll tell you all you need to know about where I’m really headed with this:

If you turned on the news tomorrow and realized that, holy crap, it really is time to grab your musket, can you name three people in your life right now who fit the following description: 1) you’ve talked to them recently about what the “red line” is, and you know that they’ll 100% agree with you that it has been crossed, and 2) you’ve trained with them in some sort of tactical-ish scenario (anything from 3-gun to paintball counts for our purposes), so you have some sort of reasonable expectation that you can depend on them to have your back in a gunfight?

I’m not really interested in seeing your answer in the comments below, because I’ve been around the block and know exactly how internet operators, keyboard commandos, and mall ninjas love to answer such questions on gun forums. No, those questions are for you to think hard about in your own mind, and to answer honestly for yourself.

You may be one of the few who can truly answer “yes” to the above; if you are, you have a good sense of how rare that is in pro-gun gun circles, and how totally unprepared the “just in case” crowd really is to form up into anything that looks even sort of like a unit, much less to operate their firearms under even moderate pressure outside of a controlled environment.

The beauty of the gun-owning civil liberties crowd is that it prizes the individual’s liberty and capabilities over all else, and the weakness of that same crowd is its emphasis on rugged individualism which discounts the power of institutions, organization, communication, and well-maintained networks.

It’s like this: Right-wingers are lone wolves, but left-wingers are pack animals. Anyone who’s watched a nature show knows that a lone wolf can pick off a few straggling members of a pack, but when the pack turns on that lone predator it’s all over with.

The Power of Activism and Organizing

I don’t really know who David Hines is, but he has recently produced a good series of tweets and an article about how and why the right will lose a domestic armed conflict. Here’s the gist of his argument, from the article:

The organizational capacity required to build a new world is the same organizational capacity have Lefties [sic] built to pressure government. So who’s in a better position to shape the big moment when it comes? Hell, if tomorrow civilization goes completely Mad Max: who’s got existing local networks of people who they’re used to turning out and doing stuff with on a regular basis? Answer to both questions: not the Right.

Passivists say activism accomplishes nothing. What it actually accomplishes is practice. Practice for networking, practice for turnout, practice for speed, practice working as a team. Anybody who’s ever tried to get five people together for dinner knows it’s a pain, but look at the airport protests after the travel ban, and see how many people the hard Left can turn out on next to no notice. Say the balloon were to suddenly go up: forget having a detailed and specific plan; in that first five minutes, do you – not some veterans’ network you’re hoping will salvage things, not some imaginary Great Man; *specifically you* – even know who you’re going to call?

The Lefties do. And that’s why righties who say the Right has nothing to learn from the Left are wrong. That’s because righties don’t read lefty books. I read lefty books and organizational manuals, and I can tell you: they’re smart.

In both the tweet storm and the article, Hines goes on to describe how the organized (and newly energized and radicalized) left has spent its time in the trenches building networks that can be mobilized at a moment’s notice for marches and protests.

Cast your mind back to the distant past of six months ago, with the Trump inauguration protests. They were massive and historic, and not only were the numbers that turned out far in excess of what anyone can imagine the right pulling off, but the “pink pussy hat” protests had the full and open backing of our most powerful societal institutions: the media, tech giants, and the three-letter agencies that make up the Deep State.

I’m sure you’re thinking these protests accomplished nothing, but you’re wrong. As Hines points out, what they accomplished was the construction of a vibrant, energized left-wing network that’s still growing and operating and organizing and which knows it has the blessing of every large, mainstream institution in American society for what it’s doing.

None of those marchers may have held a gun before, but ask yourself this: who would you put your money on in an armed conflict, the group with guns but no organization, or the group with no guns but plenty of organization?

I know I’d pick the latter, because getting a large group together and organizing it for real-world action is massively harder than just acquiring a gun and learning how to do a bare minimum of soldiering with it. With some organization and logistics and institutional support, you can pretty quickly train up a group of grunts, equip them, and point them all in the same direction.

So the left is starting with an organized group of activists who know each other and have worked together in the streets, and all that remains is for them to equip and train them. The right, by contrast, is starting with a collection of strangers who happen to have some guns but who’ve never once taken to the streets in a group to try to change the world.

And when it kicks off, who will the establishment line up behind? Which side will find sympathy and support and cover for their activities (free legal advice and medical care and publicity for crowdfunding campaigns)? It sure as heck won’t be those who are maligned as Russian stooges and “literal Nazis” and fascists.

As Hines points out, the last time the Left resorted to organized violence, it had the explicit support of prominent institutions like the American Lawyers Association. The folks who bombed and shot and killed for the Left in the 60’s and 70’s later went on to garner accolades and professorships and, more recently, free Hamilton tickets.

The Real Problem with 'Just in Case'

All of this brings me to the main shortcoming of the “just in case” mentality that pervades the 2A community, and is prevalent even (or especially) among those who actively train with firearms and actually maintain a network of like-minded folks who will have their back when it’s “go time”: a backup plan is great as far as it goes, but a positive, forward-looking action plan is even better.

If you look at the armed leftist groups that have arisen recently, like Antifa and the self-styled Redneck Revolt (i.e. Antifa with a spray-on farmer tan), you’ll notice a crucial difference between how they approach gun ownership and how the NRA crowd has traditionally approached it. Redneck Revolt in particular is not tooling up “just in case” — they’re tooling up because they full well plan on doing something physical, and they’re open about it.

In some ways, this is the difference in outlook between the conservative and the liberal. The conservative is always glancing back at the original American Revolution for spiritual inspiration while hoping he won’t see the day when we as a nation must revisit that bloody past, while the left looks ever-forward to the coming socialist revolution that hasn’t yet happened but for which they actively hope and work.

My ultimate point is that the real problem with “just in case” is deep and fundamental, in that it sets the right up for failure on a structural level. The “just in case” crowd has a backup plan they truly hope they won’t have to employ, while the armed left has an action plan for which they regularly train in anticipation of the opportunity to execute. Again, which side will be in better shape if it all goes sideways?

Conclusion: Forget about the Violence

I want to wrap this up with an exhortation to all sides, right and left, to swear off violence because really, neither side “wins” if it gets ugly. I’m certainly not advocating for civil libertarians and self-identified right-wingers to organize along the lines of Antifa so they can actively plan for a domestic conflict. Indeed, history and studies bear out that violent groups like Antifa do far more damage to their cause than good.

The majority of the country is sensible enough to understand that Americans assaulting other Americans over ideology is really bad, and they want none of it. Indeed, if anything, the asymmetry described above between “violent backup plan” and “violent action plan” is working to the right’s advantage, because the former is less threatening than the latter to anyone who’s not down with extremism (i.e. most of the country). So I’m definitely not calling for the right wing to change a winning strategy. We as a nation are becoming ever-more-polarized by the day, but let’s hope this anti-violence attitude continues to hold broadly, because insofar as it does, the “backup plan” crowd looks like the less scary of the two options.

No, I mostly just present the above as food for thought for anyone who thinks they bought a gun “just in case things get ugly,” and that they are therefore somehow “prepared” or that they have done something for some cause. They aren’t and they haven’t.

Really doing something involves a lot more than just buying some stuff and learning to operate it. And once you actually step outside and connect with other people in real life to begin working toward a common goal, you’ll realize that political organizing is a lot more rewarding and effective than silently prepping for war.

I may change my mind about any or all of the above, tomorrow. But for now, this is just my two cents, on a slow Saturday.

© July 29, 2017 by billj, "Saturday Random Musings: Why the Left Would Win the Next Civil War".

A Day In The Life.

Awake at 1:15a on Friday, I went downstairs and had a smoke in the garage – it's 36°F outside and there wasn't any way I was sitting on the front porch of back patio – and then back to bed for a couple hours. By 3a, I was wide awake, put on my Turkish Bathrobe, and went back downstairs for another Marlboro, made a huge carafe of coffee and had a bowl of oatmeal. After my usual morning shower, fresh clothes felt great and I listened to Wednesday's podcast of the Chris Plante Show on WMAL, DC, which I'd missed due to a Wells-Fargo meeting and some morning errands.

After my Nov 1st ERCP Endoscopy (13th!) at PSU-Hershey Medical Center, I am definitely Feeling Stronger Everyday.

Notice that at the top of each "Journal" entry, there's a favorite song of mine, many from long ago, for you to also enjoy (or not), and a ""opens in separate window", so you can keep reading and listening at the same time, and won't be cut-off by a YT window. Nice.

demonkkkRATs always see a silver lining with a dark cloud. Me? I always see a full glass of death gel.

After a decent day on Thursday, Friday turned out to be just another, cold, rainy day. But at least it wasn't snow, like the Plains and Midwest got, with blizzard and near-blizzard conditions. It was so cold that I couldn't sit outside for a 5 minute smoke; I had to smoke in the heated garage, then open the door to air it out. If we'd have gotten the snow that Accu-Weather and WGAL TV had initially forecasted, I'd have put all of the beach chairs and teak tables into the rear storage shed room, but it was just bitter cold and rain. The snow passed to our north by 75-100 miles, and into NY State. Mercifully.

Gosh, who didn't see this post-election "found more votes", coming? It's happening all over the country where "provisional ballots" – ballots by unregistered, illegal voters – are being "found". Bullshit; the demonkkkRAT fraud is still rampant. Still raining here, I decided to quickly go out this morning and get some Marlboros, and then get off the flooded roads. Rush hour will be bad, tonite. I had paperwork to do, some bills to pay, watch some CATV and get some shut-eye. I bagged it around 10:30p.

The people who cast the vote, mean nothing. The people who count the vote, mean everything.

I slept-in until 9:30a on Saturday, felt great, made coffee, checked the weather and news. I drove over to SKH Garden Center to get a red bow for Becky's BMW, and then over to Best Buy to purchase a 2yr protection plan for the 82" Samsung TV being installed on Wed, Nov 14th. Then home. With 50-650mpg winds today, I couldn't blow leaves, although my back patio is 1-2" deep in dead White Pine needles, and the front is again covered in Pin Oak leaves. The 3 other condo units which I blew leaves from, are again covered as the west wind follows the t-storms and train storm that blew thru Thursday evening and all-day yesterday. Although sunny and clear, the high was only 36°F for Saturday, so I'll try for tomorrow, Sunday, if the wind has abated.

After a new batch of Lobster & Cheese Ravioli and blueberry cheesecake for lunch, I watched some of the Penn State (7-3) v Wisconsin (6-4) football game on Saturday afternoon, and win 22-10. It was too wet, cold and windy to go back out and re-blow leaves with my über-powerful electric Toro® Power-Jet® F700 Blower, plus I have 10ft, 25ft, 50ft and two 100ft orange 3-way plug extension cords, for helping neighbors out, or just plug into their garage outlet, so I'll wait until Sunday or Monday and give things a chance to dry out.

Say a word out of line you'll find that the friends you had are gone forever. Forever.

After some serious "housekeeping" on my super-reliable and fast HP Compaq 6000 Pro Microtower PCdesktop's HD, plus my 3 external WD My Book 1-Tb back-up drives, which I bought for $25ea when a huge electronics retail chain store went out of business, years ago and I watched some CATV, found the F-1 race for 12p tomorrow (penultimate race of the 2018 season). By 11:30p I was nodding-off, closed down and went up to sleep.

At least it wasn't snow.

Up at 8a on Sunday, made coffee and oatmeal, grabbed a shower, and went out to blow leaves and pine needles, which were everywhere. I wound-up doing my place, front and back, plus the 4 other units in my cluster. With only stent left in my stomach, I was exhausted, but kept on working. About 2hrs worth, but caught the 12-3p F-1 Grand Prix from Sao Paulo Brazil, for a physical break. Then more leaf blowing to tidy-up the street, and back inside to watch a NASCAR 500 mile race from Phoenix, on lap 233 of 312. High for the day was only 42°F, and windy at times. Another physical break. By 6p, temps were dropping into the low-30s. I did some paperwork after gathering-up the past few days' mail, watched some CATV show episodes, drove over to The Paddock for 3 Gin & Tonics w/ Lime, and came home by 9p. Time to sleep.

Veteran's Day 11-11-11:

This is no ordinary Remembrance Day in the Commonwealth and much of Europe, and Veterans Day in the United States. Today we mark the one hundredth anniversary of the Armistice that brought to an end the most terrible war in history. Exactly a century ago – on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month – the guns fell silent on Europe's battlefields. The belligerents had agreed the terms of the peace at 5am that November morning, and the news was relayed to the commanders in the field shortly thereafter that hostilities would cease at eleven o'clock. And then they all went back to firing at each other for a final six hours. On that last day, British imperial forces lost some 2,400 men, the French 1,170, the Germans 4,120, the Americans about 3,000. The dead in those last hours of the Great War outnumbered the toll of D Day twenty-six years later, the difference being that those who died in 1944 were fighting to win a war whose outcome they did not know. On November 11th 1918 over eleven thousand men fell in a conflict whose victors and vanquished had already been settled and agreed. Salute Veterans' Day!

The US Army deployed 65 infantry divisions for the Second World War. Each was a small town with its own equivalents for community services plus eight categories of combat arms. Units such as artillery, engineering, and heavy weapons engaged the enemy directly. Yet of all categories, the foot soldier faced the greatest hazard with the least chance of reward. Except for the Purple Heart and the coveted Combat Infantryman's Badge, recognition often eluded them because so few came through to testify to the valor of the many. These civilians become warriors confronted the most dismal fate of all whose duty was uninterrupted by missions completed or a fixed deployment time. The infantrymen were enveloped within the most chaotic, barbaric, and brittle existence against extraordinary enemies where victory often required actions well beyond prior limits for impossibility.

Omar Bradley said, “Previous combat had taught us that casualties are lumped primarily in the rifle platoons. For here are concentrated the handful of troops who must advance under enemy fire. It is upon them that the burden of war falls with greater risk and with less likelihood of survival than any other of the combat arms. An infantry division of WW II consisted of 81 rifle platoons, each with a combat strength of approximately 40 men. Altogether those 81 assault units comprised but 3,240 men in a division of 14,000…..Prior to invasion we had estimated that the infantry would incur 70 percent of the losses of our combat forces. By August we had boosted that figure to 83 percent on the basis of our experience in the Normandy hedgerows.”

Nearly a third of the 65 divisions in the Pacific and European theaters suffered 100% or more casualties. However, their regimental staffs saw front line units obliterated three to six times over. To deal with this problem there were never enough infantrymen coming from the states, though large numbers were transferred from Army Service Forces and Army Air Forces to Army Ground Forces. Replacement centers overseas continually reassigned artillerymen, machine gunners, cooks, and clerks to infantry duties. The situation in Europe became so severe that rear area units in France and Great Britain were tasked to supply soldiers for retraining as infantrymen. Those suffering battle fatigue came off the line for a few days for clean uniforms, bathing, hot food, and sleep. However, scarcity compelled their repeated return until crippling wounds, mental breakage, death, or victory brought final relief.

For example the 4th and 29th Infantry landed on D-Day and suffered about 500% battle casualties in their rifle platoons during the eleven months until VE-Day. Added to these numbers were half again as many non-battle human wrecks debilitated by trench foot, frost bite, pneumonia, hernia, heart disease, malaria, arthritis, etc. and most never returned to duty. In the jungles of the Pacific non-combat losses exacted an even greater price. But somehow the infantry crossed Europe and the Pacific and always remained in the forefront of attacks.

Ernie Pyle said of them, “The worst experience of all is just the accumulated blur, and the hurting vagueness of being too long in the lines, the everlasting alertness, the noise and fear, the cell-by-cell exhaustion, the thinning of the surrounding ranks as day follows nameless day. And the constant march into the eternity of ones own small quota of chances for survival. Those are the things that hurt and destroy. But they went back to them because they were good soldiers and they had a duty they could not define.”

Up at 7:30a on Monday, I needed to get a blood test for a Lipid Panel, but since it's usually very busy at the Wellspan Stony Brook Lab, I didn't rush over. I'd fasted 10-12hrs since yesterday, and needed some coffee. The waiting room was empty and they took me right away. After the blood was drawn, I came home, got some coffee and several Ensure® Protein Shakes. I decided to clean the Hoover® Tempo Widepath® vacuum, but couldn't find any "Y" bags, so I cleaned the 2 other foam filters, left for the UPS store to mail one of the 3 Jeep Neon Clocks back to Amazon (second sweep hand stopped working), for a refund, and ordered some "Y" vacuum bags from Amazon. All the local stores were out of them.

So many faces in and out of my life. Some will last; some will just be now and then.

High for the day was 40°F and cloudy; which soon moved out and the rains returned. I was just hanging 2 rope lights on the patio, when the downpour arrived. I brought the lights, hardware and tools back inside so they didn't get soaked until the rains quit. I'll work on it later, just in time for Winter. After watching History Channel "Curse of Oak Island", for a few episodes, I finally bagged it for the day, around 11p.

Up at 7a on Tuesday, I made coffee, had oatmeal, checked the weather and news. 40°F and still raining from last night. I had new medical reports from Monday's blood test at Wellspan Stony Brook Lab, and all categories – Creatinine Serum, Basic Metabolic Panel and Lipid Panel – were very good. Yes! (Fist pump) I also got a shipment of new coffees from Coffee Fool:

1 of : Fool's Buttered Rum 12oz - Whole Bean $14.45 Shipped (Whole Bean? I screwed-up, so I had to buy a burr grinder from Amazon)
1 of : Fool's Celebes Kalossi 12oz - Powder (Turkish) $18.45 Shipped
1 of : Fool's Hawaiian Kona 10oz - Powder (Turkish) $49.45 Shipped
1 of : Fool's Jamaican Blue Mountain 8oz - Powder (Turkish) $60.25 Shipped
1 of : Fool's Sumatra Mandheling 12oz - Powder (Turkish) $15.25 Shipped
1 of : Fool's Velvet Hammer 10oz - Powder (Turkish) $12.25 Shipped
1 of : Zack Larson's Deadliest Brew 10oz - Powder (Turkish) $11.99 Shipped

I had a 10a meeting tomorrow at Mt Rose Cemetery, which both Mom & Dad are interred together in cremation niches in The Victorian Chapel, to get my already-purchased niche and urn engraved, and the niche closed – minus death date, of course – so those arrangements are complete, and no one is stuck with the costs. Here's the special engraving, in lieu of one of their standard images:

A society grows great when old men plant trees, in whose shade they know they will never sit.

I made a Grilled Cheese Sandwich and Autumn Butternut Squash Soup for lunch Mmmmmmmmmmm, was that good!), hung Dad's Martha Stewart Wreath on the front light pole, and Clear Rope Lights on the back patio. Here's the living room sculpture pedestal the living room cube table, and the loft cube table I had specially-made, from Xylem Design/ Pedestal Source.com. They do beautiful work, made to order.

Uh-oh. A "Wintry Mix" is forecast for Thursday. I might be staying inside for part/ all of the day. I got ready for the 82" Samsung TV install tomorrow, by moving furniture etc out of the way, remeasuring my tape spots on the wall, and reviewing all the emails Best Buy's Geek Squad had sent about my prep requirements. By 11:30p, I'd taken my Rx pills, and was headed up for bed.

I got up at 6a, to get some errands done before the Best Buy Geek Squad showed-up at 10a – they had a cancellation, so called to ask if they could come 10a instead of 12noon – and I got it all done, just minutes before they arrived. I moved my Jeep across the street to a "snowflake's" empty driveway. They backed-in their truck, brought in a monstrous box and all the accessories: Polk Sound Bar and Subwoofer, mounting/swivel brackets, Roku package, Polk Audio soundbar and subwoofer. 10 steps beyond awesome. I put all the beach chairs away and left the Teak Benches out, for tomorrow's coming snow, ice and freezing rain.

Next, I started researching Samsung Galaxy S9 and S9+ Mobile Phones. The online data is confusing, so I'll have to visit the AT&T Retail Store in the nearby Galleria, on Friday. Becky's iPhone is so simple to operate, that I decided to finally make a move to a powerful, large capacity, fast cellphone, and Samsung Galaxy S easily beats all iPhone models, plus id compatible with my HP and Win-7 Pro. Getting hundreds of email addresses out of the old clamshell flip-phone is going to be the problem, but maybe the guys at the AT&T center can do it. Who knows? I'm topped over at The Paddock Restaurant Bar & Grille, had 3 Tangueray & Tonics w. Lime, and took 2 six-packs of Yuengling Lager Beer home, took my Rx pills and was asleep by 10:p.

Up at 5:30a on Thursday, 31°F and I watched our first Winter Storm of snow/ice moving up the East Coast, on my new 82" TV. I made coffee, had oatmeal and watched its progress. With the cleaning ladies arriving at 8:30a and Kevin (heavy/large picture hanger), coming at 9am, it would be a busy morning. I had some errands to do, but if it's sleeting and freezing rain/ice, they can wait; if it's snow, I go.

As of 11a, we're under a Winter Weather Advisory, soon to become a Winter Weather Warning. I had to go out to Michael's Craft & Framing Store, to p/u the newly-framed shells from Dad's 21-gun salute, at his Sat, Oct 13th. They didn't put a wire on the back, so I have to take it back and have them wire it. The roads had 3-4" on show and all scant traffic was moving at 10-15mph or slower. My Jeep had no traction problems at all. Back within 30mins, I hung some more pics – getting near the end of it all – and am enjoying the "new condo".

Yes, lowlife, scumbag, liberal, hard-left demokkkRATs are criminals, pure and simple. Any questions?

I stayed-in the rest of the day, as the snow came down harder and harder. By 3p, we'd gotten 5-7", and it was turning to sleet. After hanging more small/medium pics, I made Korean pork dumplings, lobster and shrimp bisque, and a chicken salad sandwich, I watched some older History Channel's "American Pickers" eisodes, took my Rx pills, and quit for the night at 11:30p.

Life's a series of hellos and goodbyes. I'm afraid it's time for goodbye again.

Tomorrow starts a new week here in "The Journal", and with 99.6% of the condo done, I've just a few minor things to do.


Fake Liberal Media BS

The most insidious power of the corrupt, criminal liberal media, is the power to ignore the truth.

Here, have some fun. Something stinks within America's newsrooms. It's the stench of liberal bias permeating the so-called mainstream media. From lies and deceit to distortions and character assassinations, the liberal media dish out leftist BS to drive their radical agenda.

Chris Plante, host of The Chris Plante Show on WMAL (DC) from 9-12, weekdays, said, "The most insidious power the media has, if the power to ignore." Think about what that really means and you can readily see what an evil force the corrupt, criminal, liberal-demokkkRAT-controlled, butt-kissing, fawning circlefest media assholes, are.

Think you can detect it? Take some serious time and read/scan these articles and find out just how much BS the liberal media are dishing out. Wear your hip-waders; the bullshit is real deep!

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